Methodology

How Signal Hunt works

Lifecycle stages

PRE_SIGNAL → WEAK_SIGNAL → FORMING → CONFIRMING → COMMERCIALIZING → ACTIVE_MARKET. A stage change requires a qualitative market transition, not merely more supporting evidence.

Knowledge classes

FACT (established) · EVIDENCE (validated observation) · INFERENCE (reasoned conclusion) · HYPOTHESIS (testable proposition). Forecasts and opportunities are hypotheses; evidence is validated observation; the two are never conflated.

How we keep it honest

Watch signals are specific and observable. Falsifiers are conditions that would materially weaken a thesis. Counter-evidence is documented, not suppressed. Financial scenarios are illustrative and assumption-driven.

How business pathways are derived

Each opportunity is structured into multiple business configurations (service, productized service, SaaS, data product, and more) using the same underlying intelligence. They are analytical possibilities, not endorsements.